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FINANCE
Taking Control
The value proposition for financial advice is
not stock picking or managed-fund picking.
It's about getting a client's structure and
financial life in order, and keeping it that way
forever. This means moving clients towards
their goals and objectives in a professionally
managed way.
So, if we start with the specific risks a
client should take on and those they can't
afford to, portfolios should be dynamically
managed to focus on and control these risks.
The current industry process simply does not
do this, even though it claims to.
Most investors have, as their investment
objective, the desire to achieve a real return
­ i.e. a return over and above inflation ­
outcome over a defined time period. The
industry approach to meeting the investment
objective has been to set a broadly fixed
`strategic asset allocation' (SAA) of 60/40,
for instance, and implement this along single
asset-class lines (typically in a multi-manager
structure for each asset class).
Here's a brief synopsis on what
accounts for the vast majority of portfolio
construction in Australia, and in fact,
the world.
In 1952, Harry Markowitz developed the
idea that combining assets that moved differently
at different times meant you could get a better
outcome with less risk when you combined
these assets together in a portfolio (the concept
of correlation). In other words, don't put all
your eggs in one basket. His work resulted in
an optimal portfolio that was about 60% US
equities and 40% US Government bonds. This
thought process and concept was revolutionary,
unfortunately what followed wasn't.
Practitioners globally took this, and
essentially invested according to the 60/40
principle, instead of the principle of risk
reduction ­ even though this 60/40 result was
very specific for the particular time period and
data-set for which it was tested. Furthermore,
Harry Markowitz himself said that more
robust models should be used to forecast future
expected returns, risks and correlation to come
up with a more robust model. They weren't.
It spread globally and now we, in Australia,
essentially do the same thing ­ though our
SAA is closer to 70/30.
Next came a wave of new diversification,
where we still invested in 60/40 portfolios, but
instead of 60% being in US equities and 40%
in US Government Bonds, it was now 60% in
`growth' assets and 40% in `defensive' assets.
We started investing in different `asset
classes' ­ property, infrastructure, high-yield
bonds, hedge funds, sector funds, distressed
debt, private equity, etcera. These asset classes
became identified as `diversification', and were
classified as either `growth' or `defensive'.
However, while all of these `asset classes' have
different names, they often share the same risk
factors ­ the components of risk that contribute
to the overall behaviour of the `asset class'.
All `asset classes' are just a basket of risk
factors, and if different `asset classes' have the
same risk factors, then they largely carry the same
risks and so aren't diversifiers at all. The year 2008
confirmed this, with catastrophic results.
If you want to establish a sound financial portfolio that fits your individual
circumstances and meets your future needs, you need to engage an adviser
that doesn't take a `one size fits all' approach. By
Scott Moses.
Scott Moses is Practice
Principal at Lane Moses.