4
GA
/ Vol. 5 / No. 2 / FEBRUARY 2013
Owen Zupp has over 16 000 hours of varied experience having first flown as a
commercial pilot in 1987. His background includes charter work, flight instruction
and ferry flights. Serving as a Chief Pilot, Chief Flying Instructor and an Approved
Test Officer rounded off his time in General Aviation before joining Ansett Australia
in 1994 as a First Officer on the 737.
He has a Masters Degree in Aviation Management. His writings on aviation have
been published both in Australia and abroad. Owen won the Australian National Avia-
tion Press Club's Aviation Technical Story of the Year award in 2006. In 2007 his first
book,
Down to Earth, was published and traces the combat experiences of a WWII
RAF fighter pilot.
By Owen Zupp
Global View
The year
Ahead?
S
anta has come and gone once
again and the New Year's
Eve's fireworks have dimmed
for another year. America has
teetered to and fro on the brink of
the `Fiscal Cliff' and all eyes remain
towards China for their next big move.
Meanwhile, the world of global avia-
tion continues to tick over, clawing for
lost ground.
Ever since the Global Financial
Crisis in 2008, the world's economies
have struggled to make headway and
aviation's fate has been closely tied to
this slow process of recovery. They
have been tentative steps, accompanied
by threatening headlines and national
economies caught between total
collapse and austerity measures. All
the while the past spectres of SARS,
9/11 and all manner of natural disasters
have lurked with their random intent.
History has shown that any progress
can collapse like a deck of cards
without hardly a moment's notice.
Aviation is a tough business.
So beyond the gloom, what lies
ahead? Will 2013 deliver more of
the same apprehension, or will the
world of aviation slowly start to lift
its pace? As usual, the pundits have
uncovered their crystal balls and
made projections and predictions, but
sometimes I suspect that their guess
is as good as the next man's. Even
so, a glimpse at the coming year is
always good fodder for thought and
conjecture, regardless of what will
ultimately become fact.
Generally speaking, there is
a reserved air of positivity. IATA
has released figures that show that
2012 returned better than forecast
numbers in terms of passengers and
cargo growth and return. However,
those numbers are still well down on
2011 levels and the world authority
warns that "...despite the improved
prospects, overall the industry
remains weak". North America,
Asia-Pacific and Middle Eastern
carriers have registered collective
profits, while Europe and Africa have
roughly achieved a break-even result.
As the Chinese economy has slowed,
there has remained a strong growth in
aviation domestically and along with
India looks to still be the potential
performers of the future.
The big-two manufacturers
have also had their share of forward
movement and false starts. Boeing
has gradually converted its 787
Dreamliner orders into reality while
the launch of the 737-MAX has been
grabbed by the marketplace with
both hands. So much so that for the
first time in a long while, Boeing has
surpassed Airbus in new aircraft sales.
However, the European consortium
has its own positive news with hopes
that the new Airbus A350 may make
its maiden flight in mid-2013.
Better than forecast figures and
new aircraft on the horizon? Is there
a turn-around? And if there is, are
we ready?
Unfortunately, the past gloom
has flowed down from the top into
grass-roots aviation. When the `big
boys' don't perform and money is
tight, it hits the little guy the hardest.
Often without the financial reserves or
contacted clients to see them through
the tough times, they are forced to
close their doors while others struggle
from day to day. Less freight is carried,
fewer people are travelling regionally
and feeding into the major carriers
and less potential student pilots walk
through the flying school doors. The
despondency can be infectious and
consequently the reserves of pilots and
engineers dry up and very little new
blood flows into the system.
There exists a real prospect that
should the industry turn around,
there won't be the manpower on hand
to support the growth. And even if
cadet schemes and apprenticeships
are ramped up, there is a significant
lead time required which creates the
inevitable void. Furthermore, these
`graduates' are fresh-faced recruits
and can only go part of the way to
solving the problem as experience
will always be a valuable commodity
in all aspects of the aviation industry.
The Multi-Crew Pilot Licence (MPL)
and its tailored training is seen as one
solution to crewing flight decks more
quickly, but it still has its own hurdles
to overcome on its path to realisation.
Still, with increasing pressure
on the bottom line, airlines are no
longer the `dream job' for many
potential recruits. The prospect of
paying substantial money for training
and endorsements with a somewhat
reduced return on offer is seeing
an increasing amount of potential
pilots walking away from their
childhood dream of flight for more
secure professions.
On so many levels, the global
aviation industry is on a razor's edge.
If growth slows, more operators will
fold, from charter firms to airlines.
And yet, if the industry's momentum
is regained, there may not be the
people on hand to capitalise upon the
growth. Aviation has always been a
high-risk venture with a relatively
poor return on capital, but more than
ever it seems to be a virtual gamble
in the current state of world affairs.
Thank heavens there are still sturdy
souls out there attempting to chart a
course with a very poor map to steer
by. It is not a job one would envy, but
it is a task that is intrinsically linked
to health of the world's economies in
both good times and bad.
I for one hope that IATA's figures
indicate a trend into positive territory
and growth; albeit slow. There may be
problems arising from a lack of skilled
manpower, but that is a challenge to
which solutions can be found. Being
`caught short' is a far preferable state
of affairs to a contracting aviation
industry and the hardship that flows
on from there. Aviation companies
will continue to tighten their belts and
eke out every last breath of efficiency,
but perhaps that will leave them lean
and mean and ready to build upon any
growth that comes their way. One can
only hope.
For the moment, 2013 is young and
full of forecasts. Only this time next
year will the truth be known for sure,
reflected in the balance sheets and
bottom lines. Regardless of what the
months ahead should bring, each and
every one of us that plays a part in
this great industry have the inherent
obligation to go about our business as
safely as possible. From the ground
up, only a truly safe operation can
ultimately survive the challenges
ahead and we owe it to every
individual that we carry and to every
roof-top we fly above.
Best wishes for a safe and
successful 2013
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